“Let it rip.” That is exactly the thought that went through my head a few minutes ago when I pushed the “Go” button and started the computer looking through exactly 1,000 different version of a popular indicator that I often use. Then, I went back to preparing a test run of Korean BBQ that I want to serve for family and friends while the family is here for the holidays.
With Dec 2023 contracts expiring, it was time to move the models I look at daily to a new file and add 2025 contracts to the data set so they can be pulled up at will to look at specific market behavior in any of the last 15-20 years. All indicators need to be retested to verify that the move and additions were successful. Jumping forward in time, the BBQ fixings are now in the frig marinating and the computer is at 942 of 1,000 assigned task and will soon be preparing a report of every time each of those 1,000 conditions were met to trigger a signal in last 10 years, and what was the result of that decision.
Tomorrow, I am going to do a dry run on the BBQ with Judy to see if we like the new recipe I am trying, and we will be assessing if we think that is the one I should use when we host a dinner next week. Some of you will say “what the hell” and that is fine. If you said that directly to me, I would ask if it is any different to transfer the concepts of trusting previous taste tests of Korean BBQ to guide the dinner we will prepare, or trusting the previous seed or fertilizer trials to guide your next years’ production plans, or sorting out best strategies for market performance to guide your marketing plans for next year. You do some versions of the first two all the time, but I was told several times in the last few weeks that farmers don’t have time to look at marketing performance. Really?
The computer just reported in. The computer identified a strategy that made no losing trades in the last nine years (2,700 days), and has not done so on the first 48 days of the 2024 contract. Don’t rush to ask. None of the 1,000 strategies I suggested did better than a “do nothing and wait” strategy, so what I learned is that none of those 1,000 strategies for that particular indicator are acceptable to me even though some made some very good decisions based on a casual observations. I hope the BBQ tomorrow has a much better outcome, so I don’t have to search for better alternatives. And, for the market trigger, I will study the charts to see if I can see what needs to be fixed, and then run a test again. I think that is close to what you would do if the “snake oil” you tried did not produce results. Just a few observations from the lighter side.
Posted by Keith D Rogers on 16 December 2023.